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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Fear and greed drive our decision making emotions



The majority of the time, traders need to keep their emotions in check. Just like a poker player, a trader should not allow emotions drive their decision making process. Emotions are very difficult to control and something that takes many years of practice to actually turn off. Once you master your emotional rollercoaster and treat your trading/investing as a business, it becomes much easier.
There are many ways to turn off waves of excitement and heartbreak, but to me they all boil down to one base methodology. Fear and greed drive our decision making emotions. The trick is to take fear and greed out of the equation.
Here's how...
Choose an investment size where you don’t care if you lose.
Well, of course you are going to care if you lose, but not to the point where you are throwing things across the room and blaming everyone else except yourself. The idea is you control these losses and create an investing system that fits your time frame and risk tolerances. Once your system is consistent, then start increasing your investment size. This takes the fear of losing and the greed of winning out of the picture. It also should eliminate the majority of the emotions involved in trading.
Another quick method along with position sizing is to journal everything about your trades. This involves writing down your thoughts on why you put the trade onkept it on and took it off. This helps you go back and review your winners and losers of your strategies... and find any common themes among your winners or losers. This will lead to you making slight changes in the way you think about your strategies, or maybe to identify the way you react to negative developments while you are in a trade.
Turning these emotions off during trading does not mean turning off your logical thought process. Weighing the logical thought process can be a costly lesson never truly realized. Unfortunately, no two situations are completely the same. If they were, we would be able to learn from our mistakes and fix things the next time. Trades may seem similar...r but there are always multiple forces at work that can wreak havoc on your trade.
The truth is... : if something just doesn’t feel right at some point, or a trade is not reacting a specific way, then you have to use your logical side and your confidence to pull the trigger to just get out. I can take our current market for a great example of how the logical side of things changed the way I think.
At the core of this earnings season, we are seeing mixed results. I try to look at multiple industries to find strength and weakness. Forecasts are also important, but mainly for the "exclamation point" on that stocks move. I always discount a company’s projections and guidance. Maybe it's just the contrarian in me! Logically, if certain stocks are doing well, I want to see if those companies are leading the market... and locate the stock’s potential support and resistance. This will give me a reasonable estimate of how far these stocks (and hopefully, the market) can run or fall in correlation with these stocks.
If you are seeing mixed results though, that tells me we are not in some great recovery, but maybe at the start of one. I would love to see every company start to make their earnings they had last year, but the fact is... barely any company is beating last year’s revenues and growth estimates. They are beating expectations, but what are the expectations? They are beaten-down estimates remaining low... without any analyst raising their guidance.
Maybe we should be discounting the incredible news that these companies “beat” by x %... and see that true growth is coming back the company or industry. Laying off people (and starting to realize a gain from that layoff) does not help our confidencefor coming out of the recession. True recovery will come when the banks start lending, unemployment starts to turn, foreclosures are diminishing, etc.
No, I do not want to base my trading off of one company’s guidance. Logic tells me to be scared of the downside. To me it seems more people are anxious and awaiting another shoe to drop before they reverse out of their bullish positions. What is that shoe or event that will turn this market over? I doubt earnings will play the role, but if they do not come out as optimistic and beat their already beaten down estimates, then that could be a big negative.
I have never been in a market that has gone up for so long without any major correction. On the flip side of that, I do not want to be caught in what could be one of the greatest short squeezes we have ever seen. Logic tells me to be prepared for the downside and to be quick and decisive when the trigger comes. Friday we saw a pretty big reversal bar. Today the markets are rallying, reaching a high of 100.72 on the DJX. We pointed out the support areas and why we are concerned about breaking to new lows in the recap video. If the Dollar reverses and gains some strength, then this could pull the market lower, along with gold.
Keep a close eye on the Dollar. Historically the Dollar has not been this relevant in day-to-day trading, but when it is on the edge of a cliff, it seems like everyone is paying attention.





Earnings
Stocks > $2.5 and Volume > 500,000, Top Number is how many stocks are greater than the criteria each day. Top 20 by volume are shown.



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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Option Idea Of The Week...?



To all Option Traders

Enjoy

Pierre Pienaar
Image removed by sender.
Forbes/Schaeffer's Options Report
WEEK OF Monday, October 19, 2009
please forward this to a friend!

      Contents:
IN THE SPOTLIGHT:

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Option Idea of the Week: MarkWest Energy Partners (MWE)
MarkWest Energy Partners (MWE)
With cold winter weather waiting just around the corner, traders have started to take an interest in the natural gas sector. The NYSE ARCA Natural Gas Index has soared an impressive 81% since reaching a low in March. The index has skipped higher along the support of its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages, and tagged a fresh annual high of 532.66 on Wednesday. What's more, September marked the index's first monthly close above its 10-month and 20-month moving averages since June 2008.
Not surprisingly, options players are optimistic when it comes to the sector. The composite Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for the natural gas sector comes in at 0.77, which is lower than 91% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more optimistically aligned toward the shares only 9% of the time during the past 12 months.
However, not every stock in the sector is blanketed in optimism. In fact, MarkWest Energy Partners L.P. (MWE) has been the focus of growing skepticism among options players. MWE is a spinoff from oil and gas company MarkWest Hydrocarbon, according to Hoover's. It was created in 2002 to hold the natural gas gathering and processing assets of its parent. MarkWest Energy Partners has natural gas and natural gas liquids pipelines, storage terminals, gathering and processing pipelines, and fractionation plants in the Appalachian Basin, Michigan, and the Southwest.
The security has been in a strong uptrend along the support of its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages since late January. In fact, the equity has gained a whopping 229% since the beginning of 2009, and remains poised to climb higher.

Image removed by sender.  WEEKLY CHART OF MWE SINCE DECEMBER 2008 WITH 10-WEEK AND 20-WEEK MOVING AVERAGES

Despite the stock's impressive technical uptrend, options players remain skeptical of the shares. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has seen an uptick in put trading recently. During the past 10 trading sessions, 1.4 puts have been purchased to open for every one call purchased to open. This ratio of puts to calls is higher than 91% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a growing skepticism.
What's more, the SOIR for MWE stands at a lofty 1.56, as put open interest outnumbers call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This reading is higher than 92% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more skeptical of the shares only 8% of the time during the past 52 weeks.
Looking ahead, the company is slated to report earnings on Nov. 9, according to Thomson Reuters. Analysts are forecasting a profit of 14 cents per share, which is down from its year-ago profit of $3.26. Historically, the company has missed the consensus estimate twice and beaten twice during the past four quarters. A positive earnings report from the firm could shake loose the bevy of bears on this security, pushing the stock sharply higher.
To take advantage of an unwinding of this pessimism from options players and Wall Street, traders should consider an in-the-money (25-strike) short-term call option - the November call (premium is 7.6% of the stock price) or December call (premium is 9.1% of the stock price) - to take advantage of this opportunity that is attractive from our Expectational Analysis® methodology perspective.

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Stocks with Notable Option Activity for the Week Ending October 19, 2009
Williams Companies (WMB)
Williams Companies (WMB) is spread across the energy sector, Hoover's says, but its various units are all involved in the delivery of energy and profits. Gas marketing services is the company's largest revenue producer. Williams is also engaged in exploration and production, while its midstream unit gathers, stores, and processes natural gas and natural gas liquids and operates refineries, ethanol plants, and terminals. Williams has proved reserves of 4.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent. The company's gas pipeline unit operates three pipeline companies (Transco, Northwest, and Gulfstream). Williams' operations are concentrated in the Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, Gulf Coast, the Eastern Seaboard, and in Alberta.
Technically speaking, the security has gained 35% since the beginning of the year, as the stock has stair-stepped higher, creating a series of higher highs and higher lows with help from its ascending 10-week and 20-week moving averages. One concern, however, is that the shares must overcome round-number resistance at the 20 level.
Meanwhile, options players are confident that the stock has room to run higher, as they have flocked to the equity's calls. The SOIR comes in at 0.34, as call open interest nearly triples put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This ratio is lower than 97% of the readings taken during the past 12 months.
The ISE and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have also seen a jump in call trading. During the past 10 trading sessions, more than six calls have been purchased to open for every one put purchased to open. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 81% of all those taken during the past 12 months, pointing to a growing optimism.
What's more, four of the five analysts following WMB rate it a "buy" or better, leaving the shares vulnerable to downgrades if the company falls short of expectations when it reports earnings on Oct. 29. Analysts are anticipating a profit of 19 cents per share, which is lower than its year-ago profit of 57 cents per share. Historically, the firm has surpassed the consensus estimate in three of the past four quarters.
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) was the center of some brisk November options trading on Friday, as investors prepared for the expiration of October options. The November 21 call was the most active, with more than 6,800 contracts changing hands. However, determining the intention of these trades wasn't that easy. Several large blocks totaling 3,000 contracts changed hands at prices ranging from $0.45 to $0.50. However, all of the trades were marked "late," making it impossible to tell if the contracts were purchased or sold. This volume crossed on open interest of only 1,425 contracts.
Meanwhile, the put side saw some action as well. The November 20 put has traded 2,010 contracts on open interest of 1,745 contracts. At 9:46 a.m. Eastern time, a block of 2,000 contracts changed hands at a bid price of $1.20, indicating that the position was likely sold to open. As a result, the trader would have pocketed a credit of $240,000. In addition, the November 22 put traded 2,000 contracts on open interest of 111 contracts. At 9:46 a.m. Eastern time, a block of 2,000 contracts traded at a bid price of $2.60, indicating that these contracts were also likely sold to open. The trader would have earned a credit of $520,000.
Overall, options players have been rather optimistic when it comes to TOL. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has seen an increase in call trading recently, as 1.94 calls have been purchased to open for every one put purchased to open during the last two weeks. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 94% of all those taken during the past year. In addition, the ISE and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) 10-day call/put volume ratio comes in at 2.42, which is higher than 98% of all those taken during the past 12 months.
What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for TOL stands near an annual low of 0.88. This low reading indicates that short-term options players have rarely been more optimistically aligned toward the shares any other time during the past 12 months.
On the other hand, Wall Street continues to give the home builder the cold shoulder. According to Zacks, the stock has earned three "strong buy" ratings, seven "holds," and one "strong sell." Any upgrades from this group could help to add some buying pressure to the shares.

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Weekly Contrarian
Can Creative Content Bolster Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) Past the Buck?
Posted: 10/15/2009 2:48:25 PM
Motley Fool
"Always Look on the Bright Side of Sirius XM"
Published: 10/14/2009
Brief Summary:
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI: Image removed by sender.sentiment, chart, options) is expected to launch a Monty Python tribute station on Friday, in order to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the British comedy clan. Though the channel will be on the air for only 10 days, the satellite sultan's ulterior motive is to flex its nimbleness. Similar to this summer's Michael Jackson Tribute Channel - launched only a day after the pop icon passed away - the Motley Fool claims Sirius' aim is to let subscribers know "that it can respond quickly to timely events by carving out 24/7 content until the relevance fades."
In fact, says the Fool, Sirius "is paddling through plenty of revenue streams to drum up new accounts." For starters, the company has a streaming application through Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) App Store, and is offering used-car dealers incentives to promote deactivated receivers. And, though the firm's subscriber retention rate has been less than impressive lately, the author argues that Sirius' "initiatives may be more bunt singles than home runs, but the end result is incremental growth."
The article concludes by cheering the firm's ability to generate some amazing content (and publicity) at the drop of a hat - a feat that free streamers like Time Warner (TWX) and Yahoo! (YHOO) haven't yet accomplished. As a result, claims the Fool, "Sirius XM isn't as mangled as its stock price suggests."
Contrarian Takeaway:
At first glance, SIRI's year-to-date gain of 379% is impressive - until you realize the stock has been lingering beneath a buck for more than a year. In fact, the music mogul has underperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 19% during the past 20 trading sessions, highlighting its status as a broad-market laggard. And, while the security recently defeated resistance at 10-month moving average, its 20-month trendline has descended into the $1 neighborhood - potentially making the 100-penny marker that much more difficult to topple.
However, despite SIRI's long-term technical troubles, most of the Street has joined the aforementioned Fool in the bullpen. According to Zacks, both of the ranking analysts deem the shares a "strong buy," with nary a "sell" in sight. On that same note, Thomson Reuters pegs the average 12-month price target at $0.76 - in a region SIRI has explored only briefly during the past year.
Should the dollar mark continue to elude the shares of SIRI, the bulls in the brokerage bunch could abandon ship. A round of downgrades and/or price-target reductions could exacerbate the stock's challenges on the charts.

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Highest Option Volume for the Week Ending Monday, October 19, 2009
Ticker Symbol
Call Volume
Put Volume
Total Volume*
Put/Call Ratio
Spdrs(SPY)
252,411
413,151
665,562
1.64
S&P 500 Index(SPX)
171,788
468,449
640,237
2.73
Nasdaq 100 Index Trckng Stck(QQQQ)
155,816
314,362
470,178
2.02
Citigroup Inc(C)
229,729
156,207
385,936
0.68
Bank of America Cp(BAC)
233,298
128,352
361,650
0.55
General Electric Co(GE)
141,526
112,291
253,817
0.79
Sel Sec Spdrs Fd Financial(XLF)
170,882
76,123
247,005
0.45
Ishares Msci Emerging Markets(EEM)
71,436
136,818
208,254
1.92
Ishares Russell 2000 Index(IWM)
39,766
105,033
144,799
2.64
United States Natural Gas Fund(UNG)
89,718
41,957
131,675
0.47

Highest Option Volume Compare to Average Volume
for Week Ending Monday, October 19, 2009

Ticker Symbol
Call Volume
Put Volume
Total Volume*
5-week Avg Volume
Volume Ratio
Put/Call Ratio
Adtran Inc (ADTN)
19,580
14,861
34,441
11,348
1.32
0.76
Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)
26,745
1,635
28,380
8,944
16.36
0.06
Digital River Inc (DRIV)
26,873
18,094
44,967
12,871
1.49
0.67
Linear Tech Cp (LLTC)
44,945
34,765
79,710
27,438
1.29
0.77
Petsmart Inc (PETM)
14,209
5,576
19,785
6,815
2.55
0.39
Petmed Express Inc (PETS)
2,816
8,891
11,707
4,036
0.32
3.16
Rovi Corporation (ROVI)
10,159
8,788
18,947
5,149
1.16
0.87
Sterlite Industries (SLT)
16,558
9,087
25,645
8,087
1.82
0.55
Starent Networks Corp (STAR)
49,322
3,970
53,292
18,284
12.42
0.08
Teekay Corporation (TK)
61,216
450
61,666
18,085
136.04
0.01
*Minimum 10,000 contracts in weekly volume

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Dissecting The Sectors
Sector
Financials
Bearish


Outlook: Despite logging a year-to-date rally of more than 24%, the Select Sector SPDR Financial Fund (XLF) could come under pressure in the coming weeks. Technically speaking, the XLF peaked last week at its declining 80-week moving average. We have observed that this long-term trendline sometimes serves as important support/resistance levels. On the sentiment front, we are noticing a huge uptick in call buying on the XLF. Specifically, the XLF's buy (to open) call/put ratio has turned higher. When this ratio trended higher in 2008 and early 2009, bank stocks skidded. The current behavior in this ratio may indicate that the shorts are coming back after a wave of short covering. In other words, they're buying XLF calls to hedge short positions. If this is true, the shorting activity would have a depressive coincidental impact on the group. Elsewhere, Barron's recently had a cover featuring Bill Miller, the popular Legg Mason Value Fund manager, with the exclamation, "He's Back!" This fund manager has heavy exposure to financial names, which hurt his performance badly last year. The timing of the cover may have bearish contrarian implications for the financial sector. For those of you with call positions or with big long exposure, the XLF put acts as a hedge in the event of a market pullback.
Sector
Oil Services
Bullish


Outlook: Fresh signs of an improving global economy seem to be popping up on a daily basis, and energy prices have responded by trekking higher in anticipation of rising demand. Specifically, crude futures have more than doubled from their Dec. 24 low of $35.13 per barrel. The oil services sector has wasted no time in capitalizing on this strength, with the Oil Service HOLDRS Trust (OIH) soaring more than 74% since the start of the year. The OIH has gained momentum since the market bottom in March, rallying nearly 99% off its March 6 low of $64.65. Meanwhile, the trust's 50-day buy-to-open put/call volume ratio could be in the process of rolling over, which may be a concern for the sector. Typically, OIH puts are utilized by institutional investors as a way to hedge long positions on oil sector stocks or indexes. What's more, the brokerage bunch has room for upgrades, as 46% of ratings on oil service stocks are currently "buys," compared to 67% in July 2008 and 61% at the end of last year. Any upgrades from these analysts could lend additional support for the oil services sector. Technically speaking, OIH crossed above its 80-week moving average last week, which is coincidentally the site of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the trust's July 2008 peak and its December 2008 low.
Sector
Retail
Bullish


Outlook: Technically speaking, the retail sector has come on strong since the March bottom, with the S&P Retail SPDR (XRT) rallying more than 103% during this time frame. What's more, retail remains one of the strongest sectors, and is trading above its 80-week and 160-week trendlines. This month, XRT crossed above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its June 2007 peak and its November 2008 low. This level is at 34, which coincidentally posed a major challenge for the XRT from February-September 2008. However, pessimism is thick on the retail sector, as only 42% of the 951 analyst rankings on retail stocks are "buys," according to Zacks, leaving plenty of room for potential upgrades. That said, the XRT's 50-day buy-to-open put/call ratio has recently rolled over from a near-term peak, a development that could be a concern for the sector. However, the XRT is up about 20% since the rollover in this reading began. Within the sector, we see bullish opportunities for Expedia Inc. (EXPE), Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), AutoNation Inc. (AN), Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG), and Aeropostale Inc. (ARO).




     
For information about advertising in Forbes/Schaeffer's Options Report, please call or e-mail lbentley@forbes.com or 212-367-3381.
About Schaeffer's Investment Research
Schaeffer's Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a financial information and trading resources company. It publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription newsletter. The firm's contrarian approach focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm's website,
http://www.SchaeffersResearch.com , is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's. Click here for more details about Schaeffer's trading methodology.
Have a question about any of the content in this enewsletter, submit your question or call Schaeffer's at 1-800-448-2080.


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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

... Be fast - (URGENT!)

Hi,

Okay, it’s not Monday, but here it is.

at 12:00 Eastern Thursday, October 15th

Options University’s Live Mastery Classes will start

I sent you the email below last week... for all those of

you who wanted to learn options from a guy who speaks

slowly and clearly.

It’s for beginners as well as advanced traders.

And most of all... trades options successfully HIMSELF.

(I say that because many "gurus" teach but don't actually

trade!)

Here is the link in advance http://adcurl.com/ag34 ,

keep it and check it out regularly to be one of the first to register.

Don’t for get Options University will be offering some lower pricing to help you, and they’re also going to be offering financing for a maximum of 2 years.



To your future,

Pierre Pienaar




Zecco Trading: Get $4.50 Stock Trades
""
Invest the smart way with Zecco Trading. Stock trades cost just $4.50. Get 10 free trades per month with a $25,000 balance or 25 trades/month. No account minimums or inactivity fees. Member FINRA/SIPC.


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Monday, October 12, 2009

Options University will be offering some lower pricing to help you

Due to circumstances beyond their control, Options University were not able to hold
the Live Mastery Webinar scheduled for Wednesday 10/8.


This will be rescheduled for next week and I will notify you with
the new date and time.

*** Some Good News***

Options University will be offering some lower pricing to help you, and they’re also going to be offering financing for a maximum of 2 years.

Stay tuned...be looking for the new date and time for the Webinar
next week, and you should receive an email regarding this by
Monday.

Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stay tuned

Pierre Pienaar
Register here http://adcurl.com/ag09








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""
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Monday, October 5, 2009

Want To See How This Options Pro Does it - LIVE (Wednesday)...options trading hotlist


Dear Friend,

Continuing with my latest series of options trading bonuses I've gotten my hands on for you...

-there's a complimentary webinar this Wednesday, October 7th, at

9pm Eastern.

Enrol here

You'll hear direct from options 'superstar' Ron Ianieri as he

teaches some of his easy-to-learn options strategies

--> (that could potentially lead to big profit)

...and how you can master every one of these techniques FAST.

Trading options can be great, but only if it doesn't consume all

your time (in my opinion).

So go ahead and register for this 'on the house' event, and get

ready to learn some of the exact same info Ron used to train a

few of the 'big wig' traders on Wall Street.

(As always with these online mini-seminars, you need to enroll

now and show up a few minutes early because current technology

can only handle so many of us at once!)

Don't get locked out - enrol here

Let me know if you need anything at all and give me a shout if you have any video ideas.

Profitable Trading,

Pierre Pienaar

P.S.

Inflation? Disinflation? In Your Dreams

10/5/2009 6:15:00 PM

Source:Elliott Wave International

On October 1, the U.S Treasuries zoomed upward as the DJIA saw its first material decline in six months. In percentage terms, the Dow's decline was insignificant -- yet bonds had one of their best single-day rallies since the summer low. Why is this important? Here's why... Read More

options trading hotlist

Ticker:

TLT

Call

MGM

Put

TXN

Put

WLP

PUT

PEP

CALL

NAT

PUT

GT

PUT

DHI

PUT

QCOM

PUT




Zecco Trading: Get $4.50 Stock Trades
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Invest the smart way with Zecco Trading. Stock trades cost just $4.50. Get 10 free trades per month with a $25,000 balance or 25 trades/month. No account minimums or inactivity fees. Member FINRA/SIPC.


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"What Will You and Others Discover at This FREE Online Web-Presentation (and Live Online Training) on Wednesday"




Dear Trader,

I wanted the you to put this on your Wednesday calendar if you trade stocks.

Some of the most consistent money earned by professional

traders involves the use of options in simple combination

with stocks.

Ron Ianieri, former floor broker (who ran Dell's book back

in the 80's) will be having a friendly Webinar where he'll

go through HOW to use options effectively.

If you can attend... or even if you think you MAY be able

to attend, go ahead and register now for the event...

Why Not Registering Now for Ron's "Edgy" Options Webinar?

I know two things about Wednesday's Webinar on Options...

1. ONE

You won't get lost in the terminology. Ron is known for

breaking things down so that those unfamiliar with the

'lingo' won't get lost. (and don't worry if you've got some

options trading experience... he won't put you to sleep

either...you'll likely learn a little something yourself!)

2. TWO

Ron will be enthusiastic in his presentation. With his

voice, I don't think he'll be recording any Sinatra tunes

anytime soon... but you will stay awake with his delivery

and his enthusiasm. Ron's a passionate guy and you'll

enjoy the "show".

So, if you're like many traders who are considering

getting the most out of the recovery in the stock market

over the long term... options can be a real friend and

Ron could be a good mentor... at least for a complimentary

60 minutes!...

Why Not Registering Now for Ron's "Edgy" Options Webinar?

I'll be tuning in Wednesday and I hope to see you there if you

have options aspirations.

Trade Smart, not Often

Pierre Pienaar

P.S. Get a FREE 'Introduction to Options' Report Mailed to You -- Register Below Now!





Zecco Trading: Get $4.50 Stock Trades
""
Invest the smart way with Zecco Trading. Stock trades cost just $4.50. Get 10 free trades per month with a $25,000 balance or 25 trades/month. No account minimums or inactivity fees. Member FINRA/SIPC.


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; Bookmark and Share
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